Not Summer again yet

I swear it was warmer than this in February. I am mystified as to why I have few bird in the garden this year. Maybe they know that in a couple of months Lily-belle will be released into the wild to hunt at will. Maybe it is the Tibetan prayer flags that, flapping in the wind as they do, frighten them away. maybe there has been an environmental catastrophy that I am unaware of that has caused their disappearance. I hope that haven't decided to stay on in their winter habitat just as it is about to be engulfed in crude oil.
The papers keep speaking of surprise at the rapidity of the growth of the slick. Surely it is a fairly simple calculus problem ( albeit idealised ). The oil is gushing out of the pipe at a (probably) constant rate, being a "point source" in a 3 -D medium, the plume is conical. It may be distorted by currents, but fundamentally it is conical.
The water is a known depth, presumably someone has measured the rate of flow, which translates directly to the component of velocity of the oil heading towards the surface. The spread at which it hits the surface is calculable. The angle of the plume must surely be dependent on the relative densities of the oil and the salt water as well as the exit velocity.
No doubt this is all calculable. I bet the average 1st year calculus student could have a good stab at the simplest model.
What a great problem for all the calculus classes out there.

It is time to plant my garden. But first I have to clean my house.